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Votes in, Money out: the new Duma barely sworn in, Moscow already taxes savings for the war
Days after locking in its most pliant Duma in a generation, Moscow billed its own people for the war: new taxes on savings, online shoppers, and miners, while defence stayed untouchable. The oil windfall made restraint look affordable; the runway it buys is not. Russia Analytical Digest — 18–25 September 2026 A weekly strategic read…
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An election without voters: the Kremlin manufactures a mandate amid thinning support
Russia's first wartime parliamentary election opened this week as an exercise in manufacturing a mandate rather than measuring one. Record remote-voting tallies ran against near-empty physical polling stations, a third of Yabloko's candidates were culled before day one, and the one party able to absorb anti-war votes was barred from the ballot nationwide — all…
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The pause that wasn’t calm: Russia freezes its rate cuts as the war bill compounds
Russia built the week to read as calm: Sunday’s State Duma election staged to project steadiness, the central bank pausing its rate cuts for the first time in a year, holding the key rate at 14 percent. The calm was the staging, not the substance. Beneath it, the federal budget deficit has run to roughly…
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The wartime boom is cooling. It’s a soft landing, for now.
Russia Analytical Digest — week ending 2026-09-06 A weekly strategic read on the Russian Federation — the war economy, domestic politics, and international relations. Each metric gives its latest available reading, the trend against the prior period, and a risk-of-strain verdict (green: contained; yellow: under pressure; orange: acute). Sources are linked directly. The wartime economic…
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Civilian Cuts, a Quiet Bank Run, and an Election Built for the Veterans
Russia's war is now being paid for where its voters live. This week the Kremlin crossed a fiscal line it had held for three years of war: it moved to cut every civilian line of the federal budget by roughly a third and lay off officials — shielding only defence and social payments — while…
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The Cushion Is Thinning: Moscow’s War Bill Lands at Home
Russia's treasury spent the equivalent of a full year's budget shortfall in the first seven months, then kept going. Russia Analytical Digest — 17–24 August 2026 A weekly strategic read on the Russian Federation — the war economy, domestic politics, and international relations. Each metric gives its latest available reading, the trend against the prior…
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denkfabrik talk with Ildar Daminov
Once hailed as the ultimate “democratizing force,” the internet has undergone a dark transformation. Today, the digital landscape is increasingly dominated by state-sponsored surveillance, sophisticated censorship, and the relentless spread of propaganda. For many living under modern autocracies, the dream of an open web has been replaced by the reality of a “Digital Gulag.”How did we…
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Mahdi Ghodsi – Iran on the Streets: Economic Collapse and the Fight for Change
Across Iran, a powerful wave of anti-government protests is making headlines. Driven by soaring prices, a collapsing currency, lack of social freedom, and deep political frustration, people are taking to the streets in record numbers. While some see this as the beginning of the end for the current regime, the state has met the movement…
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denkfabrik talk with Mahdi Ghodsi
Across Iran, a powerful wave of anti-government protests is making headlines. Driven by soaring prices, a collapsing currency, lack of social freedom, and deep political frustration, people are taking to the streets in record numbers. While some see this as the beginning of the end for the current regime, the state has met the movement…
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Alexander Mitrofanenko – Scorched Earth: Uncovering the war’s environmental toll in Ukraine
Armed conflict is inherently destructive. Beyond the immediate human suffering, war leaves behind a toxic legacy: it devastates ecosystems, endangers human health, and threatens long-term recovery. What does international experience tell us on the lasting impact of war on environment and what can Ukraine learn from it to overcome it? To get the answers, we…